Twentieth-century philosopher Ted DiBiase often said, “Everyone’s got a price,” and that’s the case for Super Bowl LVII. With the point spread sitting in the no man’s land area of Eagles -1.5 and the total back up to 51, there’s not really a valuable bet to be made on either the side or total … yet.
Luckily the playoffs have been great. We’re 7-4 in sides and totals (+2.6 units), 21-11 in player props (+8.9 units), up 5.5 units on individual touchdown betting, and of course, we’ll always have the Wild Card Weekend round-robin touchdown parlay that went 4-1 and added at least 10 more units, putting us +30 units depending on the price when you bet them.
That’s an important reminder that you don’t need to go wild because it’s the Super Bowl. The irresponsible calories at the buffet are easier to get back than dollars lost. On the other hand, we’ve spent the week looking at all corners of the game and combing through the best prop bets, giving us more than one path to victory in a contest the market expects to be close and relatively high-scoring.
Chiefs vs. Eagles (-1.5, 51)
In the interest of full disclosure, it’s worth mentioning that I bet the Chiefs +3 (-125) moments after the AFC Championship went final, and the spread hit its peak after early Eagles betting. Thanks to knowing how the market rates both teams – something we look at weekly in this space – my price to bet the Chiefs was a spread of +3 at odds of -120. I found one available at -125, so I pounced. And even though that was the best price we’ve seen, I still don’t love it.
Philadelphia is -125 on the moneyline, but my price to bet to win is +100. There’s no chance the line moves to -3 by game-time, but should there be a positive final injury report for L’Jarius Sneed, Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and no issues for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, there’s a chance Kansas City’s moneyline bets come in, leaving us in a true pick’em situation by the time the anthem starts. At that point, an Eagles bet would be the play – that’s the thin line for a matchup this close.
The irony of breaking down the spread ad infinitum over two weeks is that it will take no time at all for it to move in the live in-play betting markets. With extensive commercial breaks, if you want Chiefs +3, you’ll probably be able to get it. If you’re going for Eagles moneyline at +100, you’ll likely have a chance to get that, too.
Logically, what’s more likely: Loving a side in a market that’s been flushed out for two weeks or finding a handful of good prop bets out of the hundreds available this week? Our props are designed to be valuable in a Chiefs or Eagles victorious game state – in either a close game or a blowout – because this contest could go either way, and I could see either team winning convincingly.
We’ll want to see some of the game first, though. It’s easy to say Philly will lead early – the team’s done so repeatedly this season – but its strength of schedule against opposing quarterbacks has helped them do that. Kansas City is a pretty good first-half club, too, scoring the second-most first-half points this campaign.
While researching for Super Bowl LVII, one concept stuck out more than any other: The Eagles’ schematic ability to make life difficult on the Chiefs’ defense – particularly their young secondary. Kansas City wants to add a blitzer to its front four, taking advantage of Jalen Hurts’ relative inexperience. But the unit will also need to use a spy to help contain him, which will thin things out in the defensive backfield.
Out of respect for Mahomes, I don’t want to bet against Kansas City and will potentially start the game with the aforementioned valuable position on the Chiefs. But from an on-field handicapping standpoint, I do feel comfortable with Philadelphia’s ability to score.
While the Eagles’ other opponents couldn’t go score-for-score with them for longer than a half, Mahomes might be able to out-gun what Philly’s offense can generate. The Bengals and Jaguars were thoroughly flawed offenses on the road in Kansas City, and both still managed 20 points.
In any second-half game script – neutral, trailing, leading – we can assume that the Eagles will need to play the final 30 minutes with the same offensive urgency as the first 30. Even if the Chiefs have the same issues scoring as they did in Super Bowl LV against the Buccaneers, Philly shouldn’t feel safe.
We could see scoring open sooner than we’re used to, and if the Eagles jump into the lead first, that would be an indication to live bet the over for the game. But when it comes to taking a position before the Super Bowl, we want to bet on something that will show immediate value. I’ll rely on Philly to accrue early points and will watch with interest to see if K.C. can keep up.
Pick: Eagles team total over 25.5 points (-120)
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