Analysis, observation and attention to statistics are key factors on the path to profit. There are many strategies in sports betting, but none of them guarantee profit. It is important to notice details and find outcomes whose probability was assessed incorrectly by mostbet bookmakers. One way to find such rates is by tracking trends. Today we’ll talk in detail about the benefits and dangers of trends.
What are trends in sports betting?
In sports, teams or individual athletes regularly produce certain streaks. Someone wins or loses all the time. Someone scores for several matches in a row. Or he doesn’t leave the court for weeks without a certain number of points.
Sometimes the episodes are very long. This means you can make money on them. Such series are called trends. A synonym for the word “trend” is tendency. To put it simply, this is a periodically recurring phenomenon. Which can be expressed in a number of numbers or components.
The scope of search and detection of trends is large, and their viability varies from a couple of days to several years. Depending on the sport and the specific team. For example, the famous basketball player LeBron James, on December 31, 2020, became the first player in history to score at least 10 points in 1000 NBA games in a row. This is also a trend. Just like, for example, the winning streak of a football club or national team.
How to Use Trends in Sports Betting
The first step is to spot the trend. The sooner you identify and formulate a trend, the better. After all, if the same bet is placed several times in a row, the odds will gradually begin to fall. This means that potential profits will decrease. Speed and reaction in betting decide a lot.
Of course, you will have to work with an impressive layer of information. Without this, only the simplest trends can be identified. The winning streak of the favorite will quickly appear in the news feed, and even beginners will pay attention to it. Especially if it’s a top club.
After finding a trend, you need to determine how likely the series will continue. That is, a detailed analysis of what happened is necessary. If the average player has won several victories in a row and has taken the lead, it is worth answering at least a few questions.
Did the team make progress and play great football or were they just lucky? Are successes related to the calendar? Perhaps she came across several outsiders in a row, and the results will drop again at a distance. Or maybe the rivals simply had serious personnel problems? And so on.
You need to know about the atmosphere in the locker room, possible injuries and disqualifications, the history of head-to-head matches and other components. If the coaching staff once again puts out the optimal lineup, continued success is more than likely. If a key performer is injured or is serving a suspension, the streak will likely be interrupted.
In this case, it is recommended to ignore the next match. However, continue to monitor the situation and collect information, because the trend may continue. Every season, one of the outsiders or the average performs above expectations. And some, on the contrary, do not reach the usual indicators. This is why we love sports.
The more data you process, the better. In team sports, you need general statistics (be sure to consider home and away matches separately), the history of the confrontation, the personnel situation, the calendar, the likelihood of rotation, and news from the teams. Advanced statistics (say, xG) will help determine the extent to which randomness influences the results.
In an individual sport, it is necessary to take into account the latest results, the physical condition of the athlete, and head-to-head matches. Let’s say in tennis a lot depends on the surface. An impressive portion of athletes have specialization. Some perform much more successfully on clay, others love fast surfaces. The results of the clay specialist will probably sag after switching to grass, so you shouldn’t overestimate the winning streak.
Trends can be found in almost every discipline and every tournament. Of course, they are noticed not only by players, but also by bookmakers. This forces some bettors to look for trends where bookmaker analysts cannot go. That is, pay attention to minor leagues and exotic championships.
Pros of betting on trends
As you know, what most often repeats is what has always happened before. This principle also applies to sports betting. And most importantly, there are no restrictions on disciplines, betting markets or championships.
Trends can be found in football and hockey, tennis and basketball. They can relate to victories and defeats, goals scored and missed, corners and yellow cards, three-pointers and blocked shots, penalty minutes and power moves, aces and double faults.
The player is not limited, he just needs to be able to work with information. For example, some football referees try to intervene less often in the game and rarely show yellow cards. This factor is no less important than the teams’ performance in terms of the number of warnings and fouls.
Experienced players advise betting on three identical outcomes in a row. Of course, you first need to conduct an analysis and make sure that the role of chance in the final result turned out to be small. Then bet on the fourth outcome. If you win, continue to use the trend; if you lose, think about looking for another trend.
The likelihood of success will increase if the parties are on the same side of interrelated trends. Let’s say that before the head-to-head meeting, Milan began to concede a lot, and Juventus picked up the pace and is distinguished by impressive results. Then it’s worth considering the individual total of more goals than the Turin team.
The second most important advantage of trends is the discovery of values, that is, inflated odds. If you identify the pattern faster than the bookmaker and most other players, you will probably have time to place a bet at a high odds. In some cases, you can even do this several times in a row. And only then will the quotes level out.
And the third point. Finding trends involves working with statistics and other information. This means that the number of hasty and ill-considered bets will decrease. The closer a player gets to objective analysis, the greater the chance of success. And the large amount of data used will protect against subjective assessments.
Disadvantages of trends in sports betting
Of course, this approach also has its weaknesses. Let’s highlight the main ones:
Every series will end at some point. However, by this moment you can manage to hit a good jackpot on the trend;
Trends may contradict each other. A competent analysis is a comprehensive assessment. It is necessary to consider the maximum number of factors. Of course, sometimes they can be mutually exclusive. Let’s say team A scores at least twice in seven home matches. But team B concedes the least number of goals in the tournament. Then it is better to refrain from betting on the individual total of team A;
Movement of odds. If the average pass rate is 60%, the odds should be around 1.67 or higher. Otherwise, you will be at a disadvantage in the distance. You need to imagine the expected level of traffic in order to take outcomes with the required quotes.
What are counter-trend bets?
Also, with the help of analytics, you can identify overvalued series, which with a high degree of probability will be interrupted very soon. After all, teams depend on a number of factors: injuries, disqualifications, the level of the opponent, the density of the calendar, referee errors, execution, and so on.
If the middle team of the Premier League won four victories in a row and topped the standings, this does not mean anything. Perhaps he came across several outsiders with personnel problems, and the mediocre striker caught the courage and converted almost all the chances.
How to understand this? All in the same way – search for information and analyze it. At least watch reviews of matches, study press conferences of coaches and the latest news. Try to understand how much luck played a role in these results.
Advanced statistics can be an invaluable aid. For example, the popular xG model estimates expected goals. It helps to understand who actually had the advantage and had more dangerous moments. A team can suffer several defeats in a row if the quality of football is good.
Then it makes sense to bet in her favor. Most likely, she was simply unlucky. This happens often over short periods. Or perhaps the calendar threw up several top clubs in a row. Over the distance, the percentage of completions will return to normal, and simpler opponents will follow the giants. And vice versa – the club can go overboard in points, but over time the results will roll back to normal.
A trend is an effective way to improve the quality of bets placed in sports betting. It involves finding a trend for a team or individual athlete. Trends are not limited to disciplines or types of bets. They are found in all sports. May concern victories, performance, cards, three-point shots, aces, and so on.
Proper use of trends increases the likelihood of profit at a distance, since it reduces the number of hasty and thoughtless bets. At the same time, there are no guarantees of success here, because any series will be interrupted sooner or later.