The NFL 2022 free agency has been one of the wildest yet. Tom Brady unretiring, Russell Wilson going to the Broncos, and Deshaun Watson heading to Cleveland are just some of the moves that have made the sports headlines thus far.
With every move, the NFL’s landscape shifts a bit, ultimately reflecting each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl. All NFL betting sites offer futures for Super Bowl 57 right now, even though the new season is not even on the horizon. Making a futures bet this early is a bit of a gamble, but you can make the most of it if you know what information to consider.
That said, here’s how this year’s NFL free agency impacted the NFL futures markets.
Tom Brady Unretires & Returns to the Bucs
The biggest free agency news this year so far was Tom Brady’s unretiring. Seven-time champ and five-time Super Bowl MVP, the soon-to-be 45-year-old Brady, has decided to have another go with the Buccaneers.
The Bucs’ title chances skyrocketed immediately, and the bookie changed their odds from +2500 to +800, making Tampa Bay one of the biggest title contenders alongside the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and Packers.
Russell Wilson Traded to the Broncos
After almost a whole decade as a Seattle Seahawk, Russell Wilson will now be a Denver Bronco. The Broncos got Wilson in a trade alongside a fourth-round pick while giving away Drew Lock, Shelby Harris, Noah Fant, and a bunch of first- and second-round picks.
This had a very positive effect on the Broncos’ title hopes, and the sportsbooks immediately moved them from +2500 to +1200 for winning the Super Bowl. On the other hand, the Seahawks are in for a rebuild, and their chances decreased after Wilson left. They are now at +7000 for winning it all.
Deshaun Watson Traded to the Browns
Deshaun Watson’s Texans saga is finally over. After disagreements with Houston’s front office and personal lawsuits, Watson was traded and is now heading to Cleveland. The Texans additionally threw in a sixth-round pick in exchange for Cleveland’s next three first-round picks, a 2023 third-round pick, and 2022 and 2024 fourth-rounders.
Watson also signed a new record-breaking $230 million five-year contract.
The Browns are not among the biggest title contenders right now, but their title chances increased significantly after the trade. Before adding Watson (and Amari Cooper through a trade with the Cowboys), the Browns’ Super Bowl odds hovered around +4000. They now sit at +1800.
Matt Ryan Traded to the Colts
After being the Falcons’ centerpiece for 15 years, Matt Ryan is finally leaving Atlanta. The 2016 MVP is the new quarterback of the Indiana Colts, who had to trade away their 2022 third-round pick.
Ryan joining the Colts is one of the most notable moves of the offseason, although Indiana is not exactly a contender all of a sudden. The 36-year-old QB will undoubtedly help the Colts’ efforts, but their odds of winning Super Bowl 57 only changed from +3000 to +2500.
Bengals Sure Up Offensive Line
Everyone knew that the Bengals needed to boost their offense line and make the most of the 2022 free agency, and they pretty much accomplished that mission. The trio of Alex Cappa, La’el Collins, and Ted Karras entered Cincinnati’s roster.
While this should have meant that the Bengals’ odds of winning the Super Bowl are now higher, this is simply not the case. The reason is that some of the other teams simply made bigger moves and jumped ahead of Cincinnati. The odds on the Bengals before March were +1200, while they now sit at +2200.
Chargers Trade for Khalil Mack and Sign JC Jackson
Khalil Mack is a new member of the Los Angeles Chargers after the Bears traded him for future second and sixth-round picks. The Chargers also signed a five-year deal with star cornerback JC Jackson for $82.5 million.
While the Rams are still considered better of the two LA teams, the Chargers are anything but an afterthought after their free agency moves. Before Mack, the Chargers were at +2500 for winning Super Bowl 57. After completing the trade, they were bumped to around +2000, while the signing of JC Jackson further shifted their odds to +1400.